Electrical Engineering and Systems Science > Systems and Control
[Submitted on 26 Jan 2021]
Title:Patient Diversion Across Primary Health Centers Using Real Time Delay Predictors
View PDFAbstract:In the current work, we consider diversion of childbirth patients who arrive seeking emergency admission to public primary health centers (PHCs). PHCs are the first point of contact for an Indian patient with formal medical care, and offer medical care on an outpatient basis, and limited inpatient and childbirth care. In this context, real-time prediction of the wait time of the arriving patient becomes important in order to determine whether the patient must be diverted to another PHC or not. We study this problem using a discrete event simulation that we develop of medical care operations in two PHCs in India. We approximate the labour room service at each PHC as an M/G/1 queueing system and show how the accuracy of real-time delay predictors impacts the extent of the change in operational outcomes at each PHC. We simulate patient diversion using actual delays as well as the delay estimates generated by various delay predictors based on the state of the system such as queue-length, elapsed service time, and observed delay histories. The simulation of the diversion process also incorporates travel time between the PHCs. We also propose a new delay predictor that incorporates information regarding the system state as well as the service time distribution. We compare the operational outcomes at both PHCs without diversion and with diversion using the above delay predictors. We show numerically that more accurate delay predictors lead to more equitable distribution of resources involved in provision of childbirth care across both PHCs.
Current browse context:
eess.SY
References & Citations
Bibliographic and Citation Tools
Bibliographic Explorer (What is the Explorer?)
Connected Papers (What is Connected Papers?)
Litmaps (What is Litmaps?)
scite Smart Citations (What are Smart Citations?)
Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article
alphaXiv (What is alphaXiv?)
CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers (What is CatalyzeX?)
DagsHub (What is DagsHub?)
Gotit.pub (What is GotitPub?)
Hugging Face (What is Huggingface?)
Papers with Code (What is Papers with Code?)
ScienceCast (What is ScienceCast?)
Demos
Recommenders and Search Tools
Influence Flower (What are Influence Flowers?)
CORE Recommender (What is CORE?)
arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators
arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website.
Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them.
Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs.