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Quantitative Biology > Quantitative Methods

arXiv:2502.20076 (q-bio)
COVID-19 e-print

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[Submitted on 27 Feb 2025]

Title:Purported quantitative support for multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into humans is an artefact of an imbalanced hypothesis testing framework

Authors:Angus McCowan
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Abstract:A prominent report claimed substantial support for two introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into humans using a calculation that combined phylodynamic inferences and epidemic models. Inspection of the calculation identifies an imbalance in the hypothesis testing framework that confounds this result; the single-introduction model was tested against more stringent conditions than the two-introduction model. Here, I show that when the two-introduction model is tested against the same conditions, the support disappears.
Subjects: Quantitative Methods (q-bio.QM)
Cite as: arXiv:2502.20076 [q-bio.QM]
  (or arXiv:2502.20076v1 [q-bio.QM] for this version)
  https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2502.20076

Submission history

From: Angus McCowan [view email]
[v1] Thu, 27 Feb 2025 13:33:27 UTC (647 KB)
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